Wired Straits: Taiwan tsunami originated in North Africa

chaos theory: a butterfly flaps its wings in the jungle and a hurricane is formed in the Caribbean

Chaos reality: Mohamed Bouazizi,  a small businessman in Tunisia was slapped by Faida Hamdy, a typically arrogant police inspector who tried to confiscate the fruit he sold without a permit. It was the last straw for Mohamed who barely made ends meet supporting his family and dreamed of buying a van for his business.  Many poor operated without the permits but in turn had to put up with the larcenous behavior of authorities.

Forum: Hudson Institute, March 31, 2011

(in editorial process and with critical update news on 6/28, 5/24 and 5/12)

Latest 6/28 China Flexing Muscles in SE Asia seas

Latest 5/12 shortages affecting iPhone, iPad all collateral earthquake/tsunami/Japan effects…

—————————————————————-

Taiwan’s China Strategy

chaos theory: a butterfly flaps its wings in the jungle and a hurricane is formed in the Caribbean

Chaos reality: Mohamed Bouazizi,  a small businessman in Tunisia was slapped by Faida Hamdy, a typically arrogant police inspector who tried to confiscate the fruit he sold without a permit. It was the last straw for Mohamed who barely made ends meet supporting his family and dreamed of buying a van for his business.  Many poor operated without the permits but in turn had to put up with the larcenous behavior of authorities.

Mohamed set himself on fire and died a horrible death. Tunisia exploded in frustration and pent-up anger. Egypt was next and as Islam’s most populous nation, neighbor to Israel, and operator of the strategically important Suez Canal, the revolt there quickly became a phenomenon that grabbed the strategic attention of the U.S. and of NATO.

Then Libya exploded. The U.S. Sixth Fleet Mediterranean command consisted of the USS Mount Whitney, a single ship. *1 By default, the Mount Whitney became the command ship for a NATO coalition that began to enforce a no-fly zone over Libya and to attack tanks on the ground. The Sixth Fleet bailiwick stretches from Gibraltar to the the Western portal to the Suez Canal. U.S. Navy ships in transit there were drafted into a de-facto Sixth Fleet.

Someof these ships were dedicated to missions and commitments in the Pacific, off the coast of Asia. Paramount among these missions is the engagement with The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) military expansion in support of its national objectives. One objective, one strongly re-affirmed in a Chinese white paper is wiping out the democratic government of the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan whom the U.S. is committed to defend.

l. to r. Rick Fisher, Tom Donnelly - pointing out Chinese weapon developments - photo Russ Imrie.

Analyst Rick Fisher arrived at the forum a few minutes late after poring over hours-old photos of a stealth fighter flying at a Chinese airfield and reviewing a [Chinese] document just issued and shared an authorative and credible evaluation of it.

l. to r. Seth Cropsey, Moderator (Hudson); John Lee, Hudson Visiting Fellow; Rick Fisher, International Assessment and Strategy Center; Tom Donnelly, American Enterprise Institute - photo Russ Imrie

Insert Fisher remarks here: on China opportunism, military posture

(see Eurasia Review’s article of May 24, Us Airsea Battle: Countering China’s Anti-Access Strategies – Analysis by Sam Bateman, suggests strategies the U. S. may adopt to counter Asian, and of course, Chinese military modernization.)

Follow-up: a few questions I  asked of a panelist John Lee

q:”Taiwan is actually quite well positioned to take market share from Japanese firms. ” is, I think, wonderfully nuanced as an answer to my query on Japan’s present travails. Is it, in your opinion, in the Taiwanese nature to do so (take market share from Japan at this time)? I am not asking you if you think they WILL do it, just if it is an option that is not out of the question for more than one Taiwanese high-tech manufacturing enterprise?

r:I think the decision will be made as much by the international firm as the Taiwanese one. But if they need to produce a market ready product, then international firms will do what they have to do.

q:1. Given the economic limits the U.S. is facing maintaining its military,  (as clearly outlined by Mr. Cropsey and Mr. Donnelly) and the developing strategic capabilities of virtual warfare (i.e Stuxnet/Iran, cyber attacks) and their incredible costs efficiencies – like maybe 100 programmers obviating the bloated requirements of a division, a battalion, or an army in the field, is Taiwan finding this feasible and worth exploiting?  (both offensively and defensively). Is Taiwan prepared to survive a Denial of Service Attack?

2. What effects in the next year can you see regarding the developing crisis in Japan. In Silicon Valley, manufacturers are encountering shortages in high-value tech products. Auto manufactures here are undergoing supply bottlenecks. And there is the station of Japan as an ally of the U.S. – and one who has confronted China on issues such as fishing in disputed Island locations. And how probable is it that China will jump in and replace the damaged Japanese suppliers and steal the markets?

r1:My short answers follow…     Taiwan actually has an ‘asymmetrical warfare’ strategy of its own vis-à-vis the mainland. While China could use its capabilities in this area to launch such cyber attacks on Taiwan, similarly, Taiwan is confident in its own capacities to launch economically damaging electronic warfare on cities in the mainland, causing extensive economic damage. Taiwan’s capabilities in this area are not as well documented as China’s obviously because all the focus is on China’s asymmetric capabilities vis-à-vis the US. But Taiwan actually leads the world in some of these technologies.

and r2. China is not yet in a position to produce many of the hi-tech components that Japan currently supplies to the market – Chinese firms only assemble already made hi-tech components. Taiwan is actually quite well positioned to take market share from Japanese firms. Many international firms will be reluctant to change designs and base production of their hi-tech components in the mainland because of the on-going problems of R&D theft and would much prefer to set up hi-tech production in countries like Taiwan. China would not be the first choice for many of these firms.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s